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My Way
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My Way If you didn't make money in Vegas, get the hell out of the business because it ain't getting better Now I could have also made this statement two years ago and I would have been dead wrong; the industry did get better. But how high can you go before the balloon drops back to earth? The Vegas show, putting it mildly, was great with record attendance of over 41,000 of my closest friends. I believe the influx of thousands more dealmakers than usual on Monday was partially because of the ICSC's changes to the programs on Sunday, and of course business being so good that “everyone” had to attend. The last time I saw companies and individuals this upbeat was in 1987 or ’88, right before the crash of ‘89. I’m not being an alarmist, I'm just relating to my past experiences. Anyway, on Monday the show floor was a zoo from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m., with little letup for exhibitors or attendees to breathe. Tuesday was better in that there were less people, so more attention could be given to your appointments. And, of course, Wednesday was Death Valley, even slower than usual which is hard to do but the advantage of Wednesday was it provided an opportunity to spend time with friends, which was great. However, no matter how good or bad business is, there's always a group that flies in Sunday night and leaves Monday evening, something I will never understand. Going back to Wednesday, one of my favorite people in the world is Ed Paster of Paster Enterprises and Wednesday was “our day” to bond, with Ed bragging about Howard and his grandchildren, while I got to show off Josh, who was at the show. We also had Doug, Steve, Barry and Andy of Steve & Barry's drop by our booth to proudly show off their trophy as Retailers Of The Year they received from the ICSC; Good going fellas, you deserved it. The rest of Wednesday morning and afternoon was spent catching up with friends and, overall, everyone I spoke to had a great year and an outstanding show. One thing our industry does well is party, and party they did. As usual, the “New York Developers” party was a fantastic barmitzva, while Hendon's party “Rocked” but disappointed many because the event ended promptly at 11 p.m. (They wanted to ensure everyone was bright-eyed and cheery for Wednesday). I couldn't/wouldn't attend the ICSC “welcome” poolside party on Sunday, since it was 109 degrees out and there was no way I could have survived the heat at the pool, but attendance I'm told was decent. Gibraltar Real Estate of New York had an outstanding dinner, thanking friends,
retailers and brokers for another fantastic year and BookMarket had its 6th
annual broker's party. Ann and I attended our 17th annual Brunch at Bally's on
Sunday with RD Management and it is the best brunch I've ever had. By Thursday,
we (Ann and I) were partied out. I heard mixed results from the Trade Show
exhibitors; some loved it and some said this year was slower than last. When it
came to the Leasing Mall, of the hundreds of people I spoke to, maybe two were
negative and I believe that no matter what occurred at the show, they were going
to be "down." Now only a fool would believe that all the deals discussed will
come to fruition, but if only one in five does, everyone will be happy. I was talking to Yale Paprin of Yale Realty Services Corp. and he made an accurate statement, "It takes guts to buy in a down market and discipline not to buy in an up one.” Very true and most everyone I know doesn't appear to have the guts or discipline. Oh, regarding our booth, we had a substantial increase in walk-ins this year over the last few and, in my opinion, that's "found money." I also noticed that in the majority of cases of “walk-ins,” it was regarding difficult leasing on centers recently acquired. In most cases, they bought the property because the CAP rate was high (9-12%) and figured at such a “great price” they'd have to make money (not necessarily). I also heard several “rumors” that with the acquisition of Toys “R” Us by Vornado, several retailers are slowing down their expansion plans for the next few years because of the usually high number of stores they'll be leasing from the REIT. Lifestyle centers were being shown in abundance and, again, I think the concept
is being overexpanded. And to make matters even more interesting, I noticed
several developers are now promoting “hybrid” lifestyle centers. Is it a mall? A
strip? A bird? Not quite sure what it means. What's interesting is even with
record attendance, numerous non-leasing people who have attended in the past
didn’t show because "the show is too leasing-oriented.” HUH? FYI, there are tens of thousands of people who are involved in retail real
estate that are NOT members of the ICSC for one reason or another. How many
times have you done a deal with a local broker who hardly knows what the ICSC is
and, of course, the “best deals” to be had on shopping center acquisitions are
from people who own one center and aren't really aware of their property’s true
value. In fact, if you really want to acquire centers at a decent CAP, don't
deal with ICSC members. A quickie suggestion; buy the Shopping Center Directory
(800-456-4555) of “owners” and create a database that lists how many centers
each individual company owns and look for ones that own less than five centers.
They probably aren't aware of the center's appreciation and therefore are an
excellent candidate for acquisition. Yes, Simon sells centers, BUT if I was a
betting man, I'd bet Simon comes out ahead more often than the buyer. Anyway, back to Internet marketing. I'm not trying to come off as some sort of
expert, but we've been on the net at dealmakers.net for over 15 years and our site
has over 2 million unique visitors a year (learn the difference between hits and
visitors; hits don't count). In addition, we're one of the Net's oldest
commercial real estate sites and in the top five in retail real estate. We also
maintain a database of over 50,000 e-mails of real estate professionals, and run
the Internet's largest free e-mail forums on commercial real estate (25,000
members). So, we may not be experts but we are knowledgeable. The ICSC local and
national shows are great, but attending ‘em is only half the solution to
marketing and making deals. You have to reach out to people who have never heard
of you and the Internet is the best and cheapest way to do it. |